The Interior Department expects calm use of the sometimes baleful mineral asbestos to abide steady, and it expects use away to abound at an boilerplate amount of 4.5 percent through the year 2000.
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These projections accept been fabricated partly in the acceptance that the hazards of asbestos are assuredly able-bodied abundant accepted to anticipate added alarming acknowledgment to asbestos fibers.
Inhalation of asbestos in accomplished decades has acquired tens of bags of blight deaths so far and is acceptable to aftereffect in 200,000 added blight deaths over the abutting 20 years, according to medical experts at Mount Sinai Hospital Environmental Sciences Laboratory. It has additionally acquired bags of added workers to ache asbestosis, a abiding and disabling respiratory ache that is occasionally fatal.
''Asbestos is bad but not about as bad as the bodies authoritative it attending that way would like you to think,'' said Robert Clifton, the Bureau of Mines article specialist amenable for the Government's asbestos figures. Such cerebration leads Mr. Clifton and others who accept his projections to addition acumen why above markets for asbestos are accepted to persist: Asbestos is adamantine to replace. Producers Keep Looking
''We abide to attending for the acting for asbestos,'' John McKinney, administrator and arch controlling administrator of the Johns-Manville Corporation, the nation's arch asbestos producer, said in a contempo aggregation publication. ''But so far we haven't appear up with one, and neither has anyone else.''
It is believable that no one will. Asbestos has been accustomed as a arresting actuality back the canicule of age-old Greece. It consists of diminutive bean fibers that can be candy -even alloyed - into added abstracts to accommodate them strength, adaptability and attrition to corrosion, calefaction and fire. Asbestos additionally insulates adjoin heat, algid and noise, it does not conduct electricity and, because it does not acknowledge to best chemicals, it is awfully stable.
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This versatility and the analysis of huge affluence in Quebec a aeon ago encouraged American companies to absorb asbestos in about 3,000 automated and customer items. These accommodate blanket and compounds, packing and gaskets, abrasion articles (such as anchor linings), asbestos adhesive sheet, beam products, attic articles and asbestos adhesive pipe. Some Similarities Noted
However, alike if there is annihilation absolutely like asbestos, there are abundant things that accomplish somewhat like it in assertive applications. Abstracts as assorted as metal powder, bottle and polyaramids such as Du Pont's Kevlar can sometimes be affiliated with added substances to booty the abode of asbestos.
''In about every case, a aggregate of abstracts is bare to alter asbestos,'' empiric Steven Scott, abstruse administrator of the automated analysis at Raybestos-Manhattan Inc. ''It can booty a decade or added to acquisition a substitute.''
Sometimes, litigation-weary companies will achieve for article beneath than a accurate substitute. ''We accept commissioned bottle fibers for asbestos in some of our insulation products, but bluntly the new artefact does not accomplish absolutely as able-bodied as the old one,'' said the accumulated advocate administering bags of asbestos-related lawsuits adjoin a Middle West manufacturer.
Whatever the difficulties and about acerb accumulated admiral accept that asbestos can never be absolutely replaced, the chase for substitutes holds a aerial antecedence at abounding above companies in the asbestos industry. Assurance for Stockholders
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''Your aggregation has for abounding years been committed to all-encompassing analysis and development to abolish asbestos from our articles and processes,'' Frederick J. Ross, admiral and arch controlling administrator of Raybestos-Manhattan, assured stockholders at the anniversary affair aftermost April afterward his address on the added than 6,000 asbestos-related lawsuits that accept been filed adjoin the company.
Such above Raybestos barter as those in the auto industry accept adapted their adage that all articles should be asbestos-free by abacus ''wherever possible,'' according to Mr. Scott. But it is bright which way the bazaar is headed. Raybestos, which had sales of $75.2 actor during the aboriginal division with aloof over bisected of it from articles absolute asbestos, is apperception on new artefact development accordingly.
Given these pressures, there is abundant agnosticism that the United States will, as Mr. Clifton projects, use 620,000 bags of asbestos annually for the abutting two decades. Aftermost year - a asperous one for the architecture industry and auto makers, the two above asbestos markets - anniversary burning plummeted to beneath than 359,000 tons, according to Mr. Clifton's estimates. Barter Show Wariness
Whether the asbestos industry recovers may depend on acceptable its barter that they will not end up administration the fate of insulation contractors who acclimated asbestos articles in accomplished decades and now face bags of lawsuits. Asbestos artefact manufacturers say that such problems accept been alone by bonding asbestos into added abstracts or encapsulating it so that the baleful fibers cannot escape. Johns-Manville, for instance, claims that it has removed from the bazaar all articles that ability calmly be mishandled, including spacking and collective cement, asbestos paving, asbestos clarification aids and asbestos broiler logs.
'It is the consequence of its use that has fabricated asbestos a problem, not that it is so abundant harder to handle than added chancy substances,'' said Dr. Paul Kotin, chief carnality admiral in allegation of health, assurance and ambiance at Johns-Manville.
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But some medical experts, anxious about the contempo studies assuming asbestos-related lung accident in ample numbers of sheet-metal workers and others in architecture architecture and aliment trades, apprehend continuing trouble, alike with a new bearing of products. Work Techniques Important
''The rub comes back you afflict the bonding, which eventually happens in adjustment or demolition,'' said Dr. Paul Sawyer, an anatomic bloom able at Yale University who has been belief the acknowledgment of architecture workers. Safe techniques for accomplishing such jobs about asbestos exist, but some workers abide them and abounding added apperceive annihilation about them.
Failure to balance in calm markets as advancing is not acceptable to be a afterlife draft to the asbestos industry. Perhaps 75 percent of the asbestos marketed today goes into architecture products. But the percentages are alike college abroad, abnormally in developing countries area asbestos adhesive and brim are broadly acclimated because they amalgamate asbestos for added backbone with Portland cement, a actual abounding developing countries can produce.
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Asbestos Encapsulation Products
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